Jubilee Post News & Views
Dr. Utkarsh Sinha
The accuracy and truthfulness of exit polls in India have become a complete joke, especially when it comes to crucial states like Bihar. On November 11, 2025, the moment voting ended in the second and final phase of the Bihar Assembly elections, television channels unleashed a flood of exit polls. Almost every major survey agency—Matrize, People’s Pulse, People’s Insight, JVC, DV Research, Dainik Bhaskar, News18 Mega Poll, and others—unanimously handed the NDA a landslide victory. The Poll of Polls gave the NDA an average of 147 seats (range 133–167), the Mahagathbandhan a paltry 90 (70–102), Jan Suraj Party 0–5, and others 3–6. In a 243-seat assembly where 122 is needed for a majority, these figures crown the NDA as the clear winner. But are these really the voice of the people, or propaganda choreographed at the behest of those in power?
These exit polls were released just yesterday, and their uniformity alone raises serious questions about their credibility. Matrize-IANS predicted 147–167 for NDA, People’s Pulse 133–159, JVC-Times Now 135–150, Dainik Bhaskar 145–160. Every channel—Republic, India TV, News18, Times Now, Aaj Tak—displayed numbers in the exact same range, as if a single script had been distributed. Is this coincidence? Absolutely not. This is pressure from the ruling establishment.
Tejashwi Yadav put it bluntly: “Whatever the PMO and Amit Shah decide is what the media shows.” These surveys are designed to create psychological pressure—so that counting officials feel the heat and opposition workers lose morale. The same thing happened in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections: a deafening drumbeat of 350-plus seats, yet the NDA barely scraped past 290. In Bihar too, a record turnout above 67%—especially among women and backward classes—signals a wind of change, but exit polls are deliberately ignoring it to manufacture a false NDA victory narrative.
The historical track record of exit polls is shameful. In 2004, the NDA was projected 240–275 seats; reality: 186. In 2009, UPA was underestimated. In 2014, NDA was forecast 270–290; they got 336. In 2019, the 300-plus prediction was accurate, but 2024 saw another massive miss. Even in Bihar, most polls in 2020 gave the Mahagathbandhan a majority, yet the NDA won. In 2015, the reverse happened. Now in 2025, every single poll is unanimously predicting a one-sided NDA win, while ground reports scream change. Tejashwi Yadav called them “fake results” meant to influence counting officials. Leaders like Pappu Yadav and Digvijay Singh have trashed them. The only outlier, Jurno Mirror, gave the Mahagathbandhan 130–140 seats—but mainstream media buried it.
The pressure from the ruling dispensation is glaring. In 2024, channel owners were summoned to Delhi and ordered: “Don’t show anything below 350.” The same script played out in Bihar—identical numbers the moment voting ended. Sources reveal threats involving advertisements, NBDA, and IT cells. Result? Every channel stuck to the 140–160 band. This isn’t hunger for TRP; it’s hunger for favours. Lapdog media now worships power, not the public. Tejashwi said it clearly: “These surveys are propaganda strategies run by PM Modi’s agencies.” He described the high turnout as “votes for change,” yet the polls deliberately turn a blind eye.
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Atmosphere-building is an old strategy. Strengthening the TINA factor (There Is No Alternative)—by screaming 150-plus in Bihar or 400-plus nationally to demoralise the opposition. In 2019, Akhilesh-Mayawati alliance workers in UP stayed home because polls screamed BJP sweep. The same game is afoot in Bihar. Second, looting the stock market: within an hour of voting ending on November 11, Adani and Reliance shares skyrocketed, generating gains worth ₹20 lakh crore. When real results trigger a crash, the “pump-and-dump” scam will be complete. Third, shielding EVMs: when results diverge, they’ll say, “Look, even the exit polls said the same thing—EVMs are fine.” Fourth, demotivating opposition workers.
The sampling fraud is also being exposed. In Bihar polls, 60–70% samples were urban, only 10–15% from women, and virtually zero from Dalit-Adivasi areas. Rural Bihar—home to 80% of the population—simply vanished. Yet they claim a “±3% margin of error”! The black market of paid polls thrives—one agency owner confessed anonymously: “Desired data pays double.” Legal loopholes abound: no penalty for wrong polls. The Election Commission only regulates publication timing, not accuracy.
These fresh Bihar polls appear to be part of the same conspiracy. Despite record turnout, every poll predicts an NDA win. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj is being shown zero seats to crush a new experiment. But the people are waking up. Real results come on November 14, and if there’s a mismatch, these polls will be exposed once again. Eighteen countries—Australia, Canada, Italy, Singapore—have completely banned exit polls. It’s time India did the same ?
Otherwise, this tamasha of democracy will keep ensuring the victory of power and the defeat of the people. Exit polls are no longer journalism; they are propaganda sitting in the lap of the government. The people of Bihar want change, but the media’s game is trying to suppress it. November 14 will be the day of truth.
