Jubilee Post News & Views
Dr. Utkarsh Sinha
Nepal, which transitioned from 240-year-old monarchy to a republic in 2008, finds itself once again entangled in a vortex of political and social instability. In recent years, particularly in 2025, the resurgence of pro-monarchy protests, the increasing political involvement of the Nepali Army, and covert efforts by traditionalist groups have raised a critical question: Is there a well-orchestrated conspiracy to restore monarchy in Nepal? Although concrete evidence to confirm such a plot remains scarce, warnings from civil society groups, independent analysts, and media reports point to a dangerous trend. This editorial delves into the signs of a pro-monarchy conspiracy, the pivotal role of the army, and its implications for Nepal’s democracy, while exploring the steps needed to safeguard the country’s stability and constitutional framework.
Signs of a Conspiracy: Protests, Violence, and Secret Agreements
Political instability is not new to Nepal. Frequent changes in government, economic crises, and social discontent have consistently pushed the nation toward uncertainty. However, recent developments have taken this instability to a new level. In 2025, large-scale protests demanding the restoration of the monarchy, led by supporters of former King Gyanendra Shah, have erupted in the capital, Kathmandu, and other cities. These protests are not only a direct violation of Nepal’s constitution but have also turned violent at times. Reports from independent media have highlighted the presence of armed and extremist elements among the protesters, making the movement even more alarming.
Former King Gyanendra Shah has actively fueled this movement through video addresses, encouraging his supporters and giving the protests an organized and deliberate appearance. However, the movement has so far failed to garner widespread public support and remains confined to specific traditionalist, nationalist, and elite social groups. Nevertheless, the intensity and coordination of these protests suggest a deeper strategy at play.
Civil society groups, such as the Brihat Nagarik Andolan (BNA), have issued grave warnings about a conspiracy involving the armed forces to restore the monarchy. They claim that this plot aims to dismantle the achievements of the 2006 People’s Movement, including federalism, secularism, and inclusive representation. Some sources have alleged secret negotiations between political parties and military leadership, which could potentially lead to a coup against the democratic system. If true, such developments would pose a severe threat to Nepal’s constitutional framework and democratic institutions.
The Role of the Nepali Army: From Neutrality to Political Player
The most concerning aspect of this scenario is the role of the Nepali Army. Traditionally, the army has been expected to remain apolitical, focusing solely on national security. However, in recent years, there has been a noticeable increase in its political involvement. Civil society groups and analysts have flagged the army’s growing political activism as a dangerous signal in the context of monarchy restoration efforts. Statements and actions by some senior military officials suggest that the army is acting as a mediator in political power equations, potentially aligning with traditionalist and nationalist groups.
This shift is alarming for several reasons. First, the neutrality of the army has been a cornerstone of Nepal’s democracy. If the army assumes the role of a political mediator or intervenes in governance, it could undermine democratic processes and exacerbate internal conflict. Second, any collaboration between the army and pro-monarchy groups could create a conducive environment for the restoration of the monarchy. Analysts warn that such actions would not only violate the constitution but also jeopardize Nepal’s long-term stability.
Independent media and civil society have consistently raised concerns about the army’s activities. Some reports claim that certain senior officers are in covert contact with pro-monarchy factions, hinting at a potential orchestrated coup. Such a development could dismantle Nepal’s democratic framework entirely. Ensuring the army’s neutrality and implementing strict oversight mechanisms are critical to preventing it from becoming a tool for anti-democratic forces.
Foreign Influence: Myth or Reality?
The conspiracy narrative often includes references to foreign powers, particularly the United States and China. Some analysts have suggested that the U.S. seeks to exploit Nepal’s political instability to advance its geopolitical interests. However, there is no concrete evidence to support claims of direct U.S. involvement in a pro-monarchy conspiracy. Historically, the U.S. has supported democratic and progressive alliances in Nepal, which does not align with backing a monarchical restoration. Nonetheless, in the context of regional power competition, particularly between the U.S. and China, it is plausible that both nations exert indirect influence over Nepal’s political groups.
China, Nepal’s northern neighbor, also has strategic interests in the region. Some analysts speculate that regional instability could be leveraged to support pro-monarchy forces, but again, no direct evidence substantiates this claim. The discussion of foreign influence is complex and often blurred by conspiracy theories. Nepal must focus on addressing internal issues rather than amplifying unverified claims of foreign interference, which can create confusion and mistrust.
Safeguarding Democracy: An Urgent Need
The pro-monarchy conspiracy and the army’s increasing role represent a grave threat to Nepal’s democracy. The signs—violent protests, the army’s political activism, secret agreements, and potential foreign influence—endanger the hard-won achievements of the 2006 People’s Movement. Nepal’s transition to a federal, secular, and inclusive republic was a historic milestone, but these gains are now at risk.
Civil society and independent media play a crucial role in this crisis. Organizations like the BNA have not only exposed the conspiracy but also raised public awareness about its dangers. Their vigilance has brought the issue to national and international attention. However, warnings alone are not enough. Nepal needs immediate and concrete action to counter this threat.
First, political parties must unite to resolve internal deadlocks peacefully. The government and opposition should engage in dialogue to restore public trust. Second, clear policies and oversight mechanisms must be established to ensure the army’s neutrality and prevent its involvement in politics. Third, institutional reforms are essential to strengthen the constitutional framework and prevent extremist forces from seizing power. Finally, public awareness and mobilization are critical to rallying support for democracy and countering pro-monarchy narratives.
The Path Forward
Nepal’s history is replete with struggles for power and transformative people’s movements. Today, as the country stands at another critical juncture, it must avoid repeating past mistakes. Any attempt to restore the monarchy would not only violate the constitution but also set Nepal back decades, undoing the progress made toward an inclusive and democratic society.
The neutrality of the army, the vigilance of civil society, and the unity of political parties are the pillars that can steer Nepal out of this crisis. The 2006 People’s Movement envisioned a progressive, inclusive republic—a dream that must be protected at all costs. Failure to act decisively could lead to the resurgence of monarchy, marking not just a regression to the past but the end of Nepal’s aspirations for stability and prosperity. The time is now for all stakeholders—political parties, civil society, and the public—to unite in defense of democracy. Only a strong, inclusive democratic system can lead Nepal toward a stable and prosperous future.
(Author is a Senior Journalist and expert of International Politics)
