Cost of Inaction is much more than net zero : Survey NYU

Dr. Seema Javed 

Politicians wanting to block climate action often argue it will cost too much. Sometimes they refer to the economic models that have been developed since the 1990s to determine the “cost vs benefit” of different levels of climate action versus different levels of warming.

Thousands of economists have spent years or decades studying the interaction between climate change and the economic systems that underlay modern life. The views of these experts can help clarify how climate change will likely affect our society and economy, and how policymakers should approach greenhouse gas emission reduction efforts.

New research is coming on March 30 showing that economists from around the world see “immediate and drastic” action as necessary to prevent climate change costing tens of trillions of dollars in damages each year, and believe the costs of inaction are higher than the costs of eliminating net emissions.

It also finds that most economists see the benefits of getting emissions to net zero by mid century as far outweighing the costs. Economists’ widespread attitudes about the benefits of climate action adds to evidence that popular economic models used by policymakers to inform climate action have actually downplayed the costs of climate change.

The upcoming survey was conducted by the NYU Institute for Policy Integrity and had 738 economists with climate change expertise responding, which makes it one the largest climate survey of economists ever conducted (we, and the authors, aren’t aware of any bigger surveys).

There are lots of interesting findings to dig into in the survey including:

• 74% of economists strongly agreed that “immediate and drastic action is necessary” to tackle climate change – up from 50% when the survey was last conducted in 2015.
• It’s widely accepted that climate change will exacerbate income equality between countries, and 89% of survey respondents agreed with this. 70% of respondents also thought that inequality within countries will get worse as the world warms.
• Two-thirds said benefits of reaching net zero emissions by mid-century would outweigh costs.
• Nearly 80% self-reported an increase in concern about climate change in the past five years.
• Economic damages from climate change will reach $1.7 trillion per year by 2025, and roughly $30 trillion per year (5% of projected GDP) by 2075 if the current warming trend continues, according to the respondents.
• These findings are in stark contrast to economic models such as DICE, which have heavily influenced policymakers. DICE estimates an “optimal” temperature (where benefits and costs are balanced) of 3.5°C in 2100.

GERNOT WAGNER, NYU WAGNER, associate professor, co-author of “Climate Shock”, Bloomberg contributor:

“This survey shows how widespread the agreement is among economists that ambitious climate action is warranted. Cutting CO2 emissions comes at a cost, but the cost of not acting is significantly higher.”

Observed extreme weather events attributed to climate change.” appear to have had an outsize role in shaping economists’ views, pdue to the high level of damage caused by recent extreme weather events (such as wildfires in Australia and the Western United States, heatwaves in Europe, and historically large numbers of hurricanes). Such events may also have stood out to economists. Extreme weather events also frequently elevate the general public’s level of concern about climate change (Sisco et al., 2017).

Nearly a quarter of respondents highlighted the influence of the IPCC special report on the impacts of 1.5°C global warming.

The results show an overwhelming consensus that the costs of inaction on climate change are higher than the costs of action, and that immediate, aggressive emissions reductions are economically desirable.

Respondents expressed striking levels of concern about climate impacts; estimated major climate-related GDP losses and a reduction in long-term economic growth; and predicted that climate impacts. The economists surveyed also expressed optimism about the viability and affordability of many zero-emissions technologies. And they widely agreed that aggressive targets to reach net-zero emissions by midcentury were cost-benefit justified.

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FRAN MOORE, ASSISTANT PROF AT UC DAVIS & an expert in the intersection of environmental economics & climate science:

“It is clear that a large majority of economists recognize that damages from climate change will be large, and risk being very large. Mounting evidence from climate change economics and science points to the large risks of continued greenhouse gas emissions. This survey demonstrates that the economic case for ambitious emissions reductions, sufficient to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, has been made.”

Author is Independent Journalist & Consultant Global Strategic Communication Council