Jubilee Post News & Views
Dr. Seema JavedEurope is warming even faster than the rest of the world. Crippling droughts in southern Italy. Devastating wildfires in Portugal. Killer floods in Central Europe. Climate change is wreaking havoc in Europe.
The 1997 and 2002 floods in Central Europe were described as once in a century events, but two decades later, global warming has increased from 0.5 to 1.3°C, and they’ve happened again. Climate change is an existential threat, especially for poorer parts of society, and tackling it will make our lives so much better – ending fossil fuels creates jobs, lowers energy bills, makes cities healthier places to live, and reduces the risk of killer floods.The trend is clear – if humans keep filling the atmosphere with fossil fuel emissions, the situation will be more severe.
Climate change doubled likelihood of deadly Central Europe floods after ‘heaviest ever rain’ Researchers warn escalating costs of climate change disasters as EU pledges €10b in aid for Storm Boris damage The floods that killed 24 people in Central Europe earlier this month were caused by rainfall made twice as likely by human-caused climate change, a rapid analysis by a team of leading scientists found. The study by World Weather Attribution warns that floods will become more destructive with further fossil fuel warming and highlights the accelerating costs of climate change after the European Union pledged €10 billion for flood repairs. The analysis found:
● The four days of rainfall from Storm Boris was the heaviest ever recorded across Central Europe.● Climate change has made severe four-day downpours at least twice as likely and 7% heavier.● Similar storms will drop at least 5% more rain and occur about 50% more frequently than now if warming reaches 2ºC, which is expected to occur in the 2050s.● The massive damage and disruption highlights the need to urgently priorities preparations for extreme weather and floods.
Dr Joyce Kimutai, Researcher at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, said: “Our study has found the fingerprints of climate change in the blasts of rainfall that flooded Central Europe. “Yet again, these floods highlight the devastating results of fossil fuel driven warming. “Until oil, gas and coal is replaced with renewable energy, storms like Boris will unleash even heavier rainfall, driving economy-crippling floods.” The floods occurred after Storm Boris stalled over Central Europe, lashing Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Austria, Czechia and Germany with torrential rainfall from September 12-16.
The study found that the amount of rain that fell across Central Europe over those four days was the heaviest ever recorded by a significant margin. A combination of weather patterns, including cold air moving over the Alps and very warm air over the Mediterranean and the Black Seas, combined to create a ‘perfect storm’ that dropped heavy rainfall over a huge region, the scientists say. Based on historical data, the four-day rainfall event is expected to occur on average about once every 100-300 years in today’s climate with 1.3°C of warming. While the event was highly unique, climate change – caused primarily by the burning of oil, gas and coal – made it more intense and more likely. Combining weather observations with climate models, the scientists found that climate change made the rainfall at least twice as likely and 7% more intense. If the world does not move away from fossil fuels, causing global warming to reach 2°C, similar four-day rainfall events will become a further 5% more intense and 50% more frequent, risking even more destructive floods.
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While the heavy rainfall was forecast several days in advance, allowing authorities to empty reservoirs, erect flood defence walls and warn people of the imminent danger, the sheer size of the floodwaters led to massive impacts that has seen the European Union pledge €10b for emergency repairs. The study highlights how these actions would have lessened the impacts, but notes the need to further prioritise and implement adaptation. With floods projected to intensify with climate change, investing in large-scale floodplain storage space and warning systems, as well as minimising development in flood-prone areas, will reduce impacts and save lives, the researchers say. The study was conducted by 24 researchers as part of the World Weather Attribution group, including scientists from universities and meteorological agencies in Poland, Austria, Czechia, Germany, Sweden, the United States, United Kingdom and Netherlands.
